Pezeşkian's oath on the cross

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan attended the inauguration ceremony of Iran's newly elected President Masoud Pezeşkian in Tehran today. Except for a few countries that have maintained maximum diplomatic relations with Iran, there were not many foreign guests at the event. Official congratulations from Baku were conveyed to Iran's government leader by Prime Minister Ali Asadov and several deputies.

According to the information service of the Armenian government, Nikol Pashinyan, who is on a visit to Tehran, has already met with Masoud Pezeşkian. The meeting was reported in the traditional diplomatic style. The brief summary of the information is that the new president is interested in developing Iran-Armenia relations, and during Pezeşkian's era, there will be no discord between Tehran and Yerevan. One can consider Pezeşkian's symbolic oath as a sign of his commitment. This means that Pezeşkian's Turkish origin will not affect Iran's policy towards Armenia.

Highlighting Masoud Pezeşkian's Turkish origin during the election campaign was a PR tactic aimed at the common people. The Iranian state mind and will allowed this because, just as the USA used Barack Obama to create national solidarity, the mullah regime chose a similar project to curb the national independence aspirations of South Azerbaijan Turks. If the fact that Iran's most powerful person, the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini, is Azerbaijani has not benefited Azerbaijan in Tehran's approach to the Karabakh conflict, it would be naive to expect a national, objective, and dignified stance from Pezeşkian, who is a much smaller figure in the theocratic regime.

Therefore, when commenting on the meeting between Iran's President Pezeşkian and Armenia's Prime Minister Pashinyan, several points should be taken into account. Firstly, there are systematic relations between Iran and Armenia, and since the collapse of the USSR, these two countries have been closely connected in various fields. Armenia even considers Iran its important strategic partner and uses this partnership to weaken the influence of the Azerbaijan-Turkey tandem in the region.

In the context of Azerbaijan's increasing military potential and its relations with Turkey, Armenia always strives to strengthen its cooperation with Iran, and for this reason, Pashinyan, who usually presents himself as "pro-Western," does not hesitate to be in Tehran. As is known, Iran is under Western sanctions, and Armenia claims to pursue a pro-Western policy on the surface, but in practice, it plays both a legal and illegal platform role for Tehran to bypass these sanctions. Economically, Iran is Armenia's energy supplier, which leads Tehran to support Armenia's infrastructure projects.

But what if Iran's President Pezeşkian highlights his Turkish origin? In this case, a new and complex geopolitical dynamic could emerge in the South Caucasus, with Iran subtly shifting away from Armenia and moving closer to Azerbaijan and Turkey, potentially altering balances in the Near and Middle East. However, predicting that Iran will exert influence and pressure on Armenia in favor of Azerbaijan during Pezeşkian's term is extremely difficult and practically unlikely. Iran cannot and does not want to deviate from its traditional stance, primarily due to its apprehension of Russia. This apprehension stems from the nature of the Iranian regime.

On the other hand, various ethnic groups, including the Azerbaijani Turks who have a long historical presence in Iranian governance, exist within Iran. If Iran were to move closer to Azerbaijan and Turkey, it does not believe it could keep the secular-leaning Turks under control in the theocratic regime. Yet, there is a very important factor that Iranian foreign policy strategists find difficult to grasp and that renders all their calculations void. Iran's close cooperation with Armenia keeps Azerbaijan and Turkey in a competitive mode, motivating the two brotherly countries to work harder to maintain their leadership position in the region. If Iran's continued relations with Armenia limit Western interests and influence in the region, it, in turn, makes Azerbaijan and Turkey lean more towards the West. This leads to the West, which considers Armenia dear due to Christian solidarity, treating Azerbaijan and Turkey more leniently.

Taleh SHAHSUVARLI